In this Jan. 31, 2013 file photo, former Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel testifies at his Senate Armed Services Committee??Barring some unforeseen bombshell, Chuck Hagel will most likely win Senate confirmation as defense secretary by the end of this week.
The Republican former senator from Nebraska looks on track to clear the biggest hurdle on Tuesday: A vote to end debate on his contentious nomination and move to a final up-or-down ballot -- the outcome of which is not seriously in doubt.
What was unclear as of late Monday was whether Hagel's Republican opponents would use up all or just some of the 30 hours of debate they will have under Senate rules between the two votes. Aides on both sides predicted that Hagel's critics would want to cycle through some of their complaints -- that he cannot be trusted to manage the U.S.-Israel security relationship, or confront Iran over its nuclear program -- but would not foretell precisely when the final vote would occur. Democratic aides hoped for Tuesday, accepted Wednesday, and groused about the possibility of Thursday.
It was not clear how the sustained battering would affect Hagel's tenure at the Pentagon. But the rough handling he got from his fellow Republicans and former colleagues shows one thing for sure: The former lawmaker cannot count on getting the benefit of the doubt from Congress as he moves to deal with spending cuts that start coming into force on Friday, or takes on challenges overseas like the withdrawal from Afghanistan. (Top House Republicans don't get a vote, but some came out against Hagel, presaging combative exchanges when he goes before the House Armed Services Committee).
But first, the confirmation process.
Democrats have set up a cloture vote ? a vote to end debate on the Republican former senator?s nomination ? for midday on Tuesday. A similar effort fell short in the face of an unprecedented GOP filibuster two weeks ago, with Democrats just one vote shy of the 60 needed to proceed to confirm Hagel. (The tally showed 58 votes in favor, but Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid changed his vote to ?no? in order to secure the right under parliamentary rules to bring up today?s vote).
Since then, however, Republican Senator Richard Shelby of Alabama has come out in favor of Hagel, and some of his colleagues have indicated they will back cloture unless some bombshell new allegation surfaces. The White House, meanwhile, flatly rejected a Republican call late last week to withdraw the nomination.
So the Senate is likely to all-but-certain to invoke cloture. But, under Senate rules, that starts the clock on a 30-hour debate before the final confirmation vote. Republicans could decide not to use the full 30 hours, but as of late Monday it was unclear whether they would do so. And even one objection would mean lawmakers would have to use up the full 30 hours ? putting off the last vote in Hagel?s rocky nomination process to late Wednesday or even early Thursday.
Democrats can count on 55 votes ? four more than the 51 needed to confirm Hagel. So the cloture vote is really the last real stab at derailing a nomination that drew fierce Republican opposition and generally tepid Democratic support and that briefly looked lost in the weeds after Hagel put in a decidedly poor performance in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee.
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